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Alex_Barry comments on The person-affecting value of existential risk reduction - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Gregory_Lewis 13 April 2018 10:19:18PM 4 points [-]

As you've noted in the comments, you model this as $1bn total, rather than $1bn a year. Ignoring the fact that the person affecting advocate (PAA) only cares about present people (at time of initial decision to spend), if the cost-effectivneness is even 10 lower then it probably no long counts as a good buy.

No, in my comments I note precisely the opposite. The model assumes 1B per year. If the cost is 1B total to reduce risk for the subsequent century, the numbers get more optimistic (100x optimistic if you buy counterpart-y views, but still somewhat better if you discount the benefit in future years by how many from the initial cohort remain alive).

Further, the model is time-uniform, so it can collapse into a 'I can spend 1B in 2018 to reduce xrisk in this year by 1% from a 0.01% baseline, and the same number gets spit out. So if a PAA buys these numbers (as Alex says, I think my offers skew conservative to xrisk consensus if we take them as amortized across-century risk, they might be about right/'optimistic' if they are taken as an estimate for this year alone), this looks an approximately good buy.

Population ethics generally, and PA views within them, are far from my expertise. I guess I'd be surprised if pricing by TRIA gives a huge discount, as I take most people consider themselves pretty psychologically continuous from the ages of ~15 onwards. If this isn't true, or consensus view amongst PAAs is "TRIA, and we're mistaken to our degree of psychological continuity", then this plausibly shaves off an order of magnitude-ish and plonks it more in the 'probably not a good buy' category.

Comment author: Alex_Barry 13 April 2018 10:33:52PM *  1 point [-]

If this isn't true, or consensus view amongst PAAs is "TRIA, and we're mistaken to our degree of psychological continuity", then this plausibly shaves off an order of magnitude-ish and plonks it more in the 'probably not a good buy' category.

It would also have the same (or worse) effect on other things that save lives (e.g. AMF) so it is not totally clear how much worse x-risk would look compared to everything else. (Although perhaps e.g. deworming would come out very well, if it just reduces suffering for a short-ish timescale. (The fact that it mostly effects children might sway things the other way though!))

Comment author: MichaelPlant 13 April 2018 10:59:19PM 2 points [-]

It would also have the same (or worse) effect on other things that save lives (e.g. AMF)

I agree. As I said here, TRIA implies you should care much less about saving young lives. The upshot for TRIA vs PAA combined with the life-comparative account is you should focused more on improving lives than saving lives if you like TRIA.>

Although perhaps e.g. deworming would come out very well, if it just reduces suffering for a short-ish timescale

Just on this note, GiveWell claim only 2% of the value of deworming comes from short term health benefits and 98% from economic gains (see their latest cost-effectiveness spreadsheet), so they don't think the value is on the suffering-reducing end.