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Alex_Barry comments on The person-affecting value of existential risk reduction - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Alex_Barry 13 April 2018 10:33:52PM *  1 point [-]

If this isn't true, or consensus view amongst PAAs is "TRIA, and we're mistaken to our degree of psychological continuity", then this plausibly shaves off an order of magnitude-ish and plonks it more in the 'probably not a good buy' category.

It would also have the same (or worse) effect on other things that save lives (e.g. AMF) so it is not totally clear how much worse x-risk would look compared to everything else. (Although perhaps e.g. deworming would come out very well, if it just reduces suffering for a short-ish timescale. (The fact that it mostly effects children might sway things the other way though!))

Comment author: MichaelPlant 13 April 2018 10:59:19PM 2 points [-]

It would also have the same (or worse) effect on other things that save lives (e.g. AMF)

I agree. As I said here, TRIA implies you should care much less about saving young lives. The upshot for TRIA vs PAA combined with the life-comparative account is you should focused more on improving lives than saving lives if you like TRIA.>

Although perhaps e.g. deworming would come out very well, if it just reduces suffering for a short-ish timescale

Just on this note, GiveWell claim only 2% of the value of deworming comes from short term health benefits and 98% from economic gains (see their latest cost-effectiveness spreadsheet), so they don't think the value is on the suffering-reducing end.