ThomasSittler comments on “Just take the expected value” – a possible reply to concerns about cluelessness - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: ThomasSittler 30 December 2017 02:13:48PM *  5 points [-]

By now it should be clear that simply following the expected value is not a sufficient response to concerns of cluelessness.

I don't think this follows. Even if we have no information, there are strong theoretical reasons to have sharp credences (ones that are represented by a single number).

There is an existing literature on this. See

R. White: Evidential symmetry and Mushy Credence

S. Bradley: Imprecise probabilities. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/imprecise-probabilities/

A. Elga: subjective probabilities should be sharp

Elga shows that agents who don't have perfectly sharp probabilities are vulnerable to a variant of Dutch Books.