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RomeoStevens comments on “Just take the expected value” – a possible reply to concerns about cluelessness - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: RomeoStevens 24 December 2017 07:48:19AM 3 points [-]

I'll second this. In double cruxing EV calcs with others it is clear that they are often quite parameter sensitive and that awareness of such parameter sensitivity is rare/does not come for free. Just the opposite, trying to do sensitivity analysis on what are already fuzzy qualitative->quantitative heuristics is quite stressful/frustrating. Results from sufficiently complex EV calcs usually fall prey to ontology failures, ie key assumptions turned out wrong 25% of the time in studies on analyst performance in the intelligence community, and most scenarios have more than 4 key assumptions.