Jan_Kulveit comments on Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA): an overview of 2017 and our 2018 plans - Effective Altruism Forum

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (22)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Jan_Kulveit 28 December 2017 11:58:17AM 1 point [-]

For scientific publishing, I looked into the latest available paper[1] and apparently the data are best fitted by a model where the impact of scientific papers is predicted by Q.p, where p is "intrinsic value" of the project and Q is a parameter capturing the cognitive ability of the researcher. Notably, Q is independent of the total number of papers written by the scientist, and Q and p are also independent. Translating into the language of digging for gold, the prospectors differ in their speed and ability to extract gold from the deposits (Q). The gold in the deposits actually is randomly distributed. To extract exceptional value, you have to have both high Q and be very lucky. What is encouraging in selecting the talent is the Q seems relatively stable in the career and can be usefully estimated after ~20 publications. I would guess you can predict even with less data, but the correct "formula" would be trying to disentangle interestingness of the problems the person is working on from the interestingness of the results.

(As a side note, I was wrong in guessing this is strongly field-dependent, as the model seems stable across several disciplines, time periods, and many other parameters.)

Interesting heuristics about people :)

I agree the problem is somewhat different in areas not that established/institutionalized where you don't have clear dimensions of competition, or the well measurable dimensions are not that well aligned with what is important. Loooks like another understudied area.

[1] Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact, Sinatra et.al. Science, http://www.sciencesuccess.org/uploads/1/5/5/4/15543620/science_quantifying_aaf5239_sinatra.pdf

Comment author: Benito 31 December 2017 12:26:05AM 0 points [-]

I copied this exchange to my blog, and there were an additonal bunch of interesting comments there.