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Gregory_Lewis comments on Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA): an overview of 2017 and our 2018 plans - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Gregory_Lewis 27 December 2017 02:27:20AM 4 points [-]

I share your caution on the difficulty of 'picking high impact people well', besides the risk of over-fitting on anecdata we happen to latch on to, the past may simply prove underpowered for forward prediction: I'm not sure any system could reliably 'pick up' Einstein or Ramanujan, and I wonder how much 'thinking tools' etc. are just epiphenomena of IQ.

That said, fairly boring metrics are fairly predictive. People who do exceptionally well at school tend to do well at university, those who excel at university have a better chance of exceptional professional success, and so on and so forth. SPARC (a program aimed at extraordinarily mathematically able youth) seems a neat example. I accept none of these supply an easy model for 'talent scouting' intra-EA, but they suggest one can do much better than chance.

Optimal selectivity also depends on the size of boost you give to people, even if they are imperfectly selected. It's plausible this relationship could be convex over the 'one-to-one mentoring to webpage' range, and so you might have to gamble on something intensive even in expectation of you failing to identify most or nearly all of the potentially great people.

(Aside: Although tricky to put human ability on a cardinal scale, normal-distribution properties for things like working memory suggest cognitive ability (however cashed out) isn't power law distributed. One explanation of how this could drive power-law distributions in some fields would be a Matthew effect: being marginally better than competing scientists lets one take the majority of the great new discoveries. This may suggest more neglected areas, or those where the crucial consideration is whether/when something is discovered, rather than who discovers it (compare a malaria vaccine to an AGI), are those where the premium to really exceptional talent is less. )