WilliamKiely comments on #GivingTuesday: Counter-Factual Donation Matching is the Lowest-Hanging Fruit in Effective Giving - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: WilliamKiely 27 November 2017 12:37:31AM *  4 points [-]

Facebook saw over 100,000 people donate to thousands of fundraisers that raised $6.79 million on Giving Tuesday across the United States. (Source)

This year I expect it to be more, though I'm not well-informed on how much more. Perhaps $10-$20MM is a reasonable expectation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giving_Tuesday

Also, the match last year was for $500K instead of $2MM. From the same source:

After the initial match of $500,000 was reached within hours, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation increased their pledge to $900,000 total to match more Giving Tuesday Fundraisers on Facebook.

Note that last year's matching campaign was also announced in advance.

So I think 3 minutes is overkill. While apriori I would be expecting people to take advantage of this such that $2MM in donations are made in the first ~3 minutes, I think that last year shows that this is unlikely to happen. I would be surprised if the $2MM match is reached in less than 30 minutes. I'll assign a 20% probability to that happening somewhat arbitrarily. And maybe a 5% chance to it being reached in less than 10 minutes. My median estimate would be around 9:30 EST (1.5 hours). And maybe a 20% chance that it takes more than 3 hours. Although I don't really know, so my suggestion is to donate ASAP. If you're donating more than just a small amount it's worth it even if it's inconvenient.

I intend to make all of my donations ASAP after 8:00 AM EST. (I am going to try to make 10 separate $1,000 donations before 8:10 AM EST).