SiebeRozendal comments on Causal Networks Model I: Introduction & User Guide - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: SiebeRozendal 02 January 2018 03:59:10PM *  1 point [-]

This is an interesting project! I am wondering how valuable you have found it, and whether there are any plans for further development. I can imagine that it would be valuable to

  • Increase complexity to increase robustness of the model, but then find some balance between robustness and user-friendliness, perhaps by allowing users to view the model on different 'levels' of complexity.
  • Use some form of crowd-sourcing to get much more reliable estimates, ideally weighted by expertise or forecasting ability.
  • Incorporate some insights from the moral uncertainty literature, so that low probability of something being very bad (e.g. wild animal suffering, or insect suffering) are given appropriate weight.

However, I have no idea how feasible this is, and imagine it would require many and valuable resources (lots of time, money, and capable researchers). Do you already have thoughts on this?

P.S. The link is missing for part IV

Comment author: Denise_Melchin 09 February 2018 12:55:44AM 0 points [-]

Thank you for your comment. I agree our model is only a very basic version and it would be interesting to see it developed further. (Though there are currently no further plans for development that I know of.)

This model was created in about 14 wks of FTEs. I expect a project like you're proposing to take much longer.