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RobBensinger comments on Inadequacy and Modesty - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: RobBensinger 31 October 2017 12:18:52AM *  0 points [-]

Cool. Note the bet with Bryan Caplan was partly tongue-in-cheek; though it's true Eliezer is currently relatively pessimistic about humanity's chances.

From Eliezer on Facebook:

Key backstory: I made two major bets in 2016 and lost both of them, one bet against AlphaGo beating Lee Se-dol, and another bet against Trump winning the presidency. In both cases I was betting with the GJP superforecasters, but lost anyway.

Meanwhile Bryan won every one of his bets, again, including his bet that "Donald Trump will not concede the election by Saturday".

So, to take advantage of Bryan's amazing bet-winning capability and my amazing bet-losing capability, I asked Bryan if I could bet him that the world would be destroyed by 2030.

The generator of this bet wasn't a strong epistemic stance, which seems important to emphasize because of the usual expectations involving public bets. BUT you may be licensed to draw conclusions from the fact that, when I was humorously imagining what I could get from exploiting this phenomenon, my System 1 thought that having the world not be destroyed before 2030 was the most it could reasonably ask.