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ThomasSittler comments on Oxford Prioritisation Project Review - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: ThomasSittler 13 October 2017 05:13:17PM 4 points [-]

Thanks for the comment! I substantially disagree. The Project created some benefits, but (with low confidence) I don't think the costs were worth it. I'm seeing a lot of people note the benefits of the Project and conclude that the Project was net-positive, without engaging with the costs and/or counterfactuals.

Regarding the selection, I disagree that this was a substantial effect. But it's something we should discuss in person.

Comment author: nonzerosum 16 October 2017 01:30:53AM 1 point [-]

The Project created some benefits, but (with low confidence) I don't think the costs were worth it.

I think it's worth separating the outcome with the expected value at the time the project was begun.

It can still have been a +EV decision to have done it based on the information you had at the time.

i.e. it can't be evaluated as not being worth it because it didn't turn out to be worth it, it can have been worth doing because the expected value at the time made it worth it, even if it ended up not being net-positive.