MichaelPlant comments on What do DALYs capture? - Effective Altruism Forum
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20 September 2017 09:18PM
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Comments (10)
Some nitpicks in turn!
I don't think this follows. If these states are impossible (I don't disagree) then they'll never come in real life, so it won't matter what people say in the TTOs. As long as people make sensible judgements about the health states that actually occur, it doesn't matter what they say in impossible ones. I think you should push the fact they don't make sensible judgements in general - affective forecasting stuff, etc.
Curious. Hmm. IIRC, DALYs and QALYs don't have a neutral point: 1 is healthy, 0 is dead, but it's not specified where between 0 and 1 is neutral. Is neutral 0.5? 0? Unless you know where neutral is you can't specify the minimum point on the scale, because it doesn't make sense.
What would -1 mean here? DALYs and QALYs aren't well-being scales and can't straightforwardly be interpreted as such.
Good point. But I wonder whether they reinterpret the meanings of some of the dimensions of the ED-Q5 in order to make sense of some of the health states they are asked to rate.
Agree.
This depends on the study. I'm afraid it will take me a couple of paragraphs to explain the methodology, but I hope you'll bear with me :)
The literature review by Tilling et al. (2010) concluded that only 8% of all TTO studies even allow for subjects to rate health states as worse than death (i.e. as below 0), so for the vast majority of studies, the minimum point on the scale is indeed 0. I think this is problematic since e.g. health states like 33333 (if they are permanent) are probably worse than death for many, maybe even most people.
Of the few TTO studies that allow for negative values, the protocols by Torrence et al. (1982) and Dolan (1997) are used by almost all of them. Below a quote by Tilling et al. (2010), describing these two methods:
These two TTO protocols, in theory, would allow for extremely negative (and even infinite) negative values. Tilling et al. (2010) explain:
How do researchers respond? Again, I’ll quote Tilling et al. (2010, emphasis mine):
In the two most commonly used TTO protocols, the smallest unit of time the TTO procedure iterates toward for SWD is 1 year. Consequently, the lower bound is -9. (Sometimes, the smallest united of time is 3 months, so the lowest possible value is -39.)
To give a concrete example: The subject is indifferent between A) living for 2 years in full health and for 8 years in health state 33333 and B) dying immediately. Thus, the value for health state 33333, for this subject, is - 8/2 = - 4.
Now almost all researchers then transform these values, such that the lowest possible value is -1. In my view, this is somewhat arbitrary.
Below some quotes by Devlin et al. (2011) on the matter:
...
And here another quote by Tilling et al (2010):
I hope this explains my previous comment.
References:
Devlin, N. J., Tsuchiya, A., Buckingham, K., & Tilling, C. (2011, 02). A uniform time trade off method for states better and worse than dead: Feasibility study of the ‘lead time’ approach. Health Economics, 20(3), 348-361.
Dolan, P. (1997). Modeling Valuations for EuroQol Health States. Medical Care, 35(11), 1095-1108.
Tilling, C., Devlin, N., Tsuchiya, A., & Buckingham, K. (2010, 09). Protocols for Time Tradeoff Valuations of Health States Worse than Dead: A Literature Review. Medical Decision Making, 30(5), 610-619.
Torrance, G. W., Boyle, M. H., & Horwood, S. P. (1982, 12). Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory to Measure Social Preferences for Health States. Operations Research, 30(6), 1043-1069.