Milan_Griffes comments on \\ - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Milan_Griffes 15 September 2017 01:54:09AM *  1 point [-]

Comment author: Michael_S 15 September 2017 02:48:50AM 0 points [-]

Cool; had missed that row. Yeah, if it polls, 70% the chance of passage might be close to 80%. Conditional upon that level of support, your estimate seems reasonable to me (assuming the ballot summary language would not be far more complex than the polled language).

Yeah, I agree that it being an effective treatment is a necessary precursor to it being a good ballot law to pass by ballot initiative and part of the EV calculation for spending money on the ballot measure itself.