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WillPearson comments on Looking at how Superforecasting might improve some EA projects response to Superintelligence - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: WillPearson 30 August 2017 07:27:00PM *  0 points [-]

Sorry if you felt I was being deceptive. The list of areas of expertise I mentioned in the 80K hours section was relatively broad and not meant to be exhaustive. I could add physics and economics off the top of my head. I'm sure there were many more. I was considering each AGI team as having to do small amounts of forecasting about the likely success and usefulness of their projects. I think building it in the superforecasting mindset at all levels of endeavours could be valuable, without having to rely on explicit superforecasters for every decision.

In my opinion, the best way to draw lessons from the Good Judgement Project is to directly rely on existing forecasting teams, or new forecasting teams trained and tested in the same manner, to give us their predictions on potential superintelligence, and to give the appropriate weight to their expertise.

It would be great to have a full team of forecasters working on intelligence in general (so they would have something to correlate their answers on Superintelligence). I was being moderate in my demands in how much Open Philanthropy Project should change how they make forecasts about what is good to do. I just wanted it to be directionally correct.

As a comparison, I don't think that giving a forecaster this list of suggestions and asking them to make predictions with those suggestions in mind would lead to performance similar to that of a superforecaster

There was a simple thing people could do to improve their predictions.

From the book:

One result was particularly surprised me was the effect of a tutorial covering some basic concepts that we'll explore in this book and are summarized in the Ten Commandments appendix. It took only sixty minutes to read and yet it improved accuracy by roughly 10% through the entire tournament year.

The ten commandment appendix is where I got the list of things to do. I figure if I managed to get Open Philosophy Project to try and follow them, things would improve. But I agree them getting good forecasters somehow would be a lot better.

Does that clear up where I was coming from?