poppingtonic comments on Open Thread #38 - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: poppingtonic 23 August 2017 12:12:49PM 1 point [-]

I think that the Good Judgment Project (founded by Philip Tetlock, the author of Superforecasting) is trying to build this with their experiments.

Comment author: WillPearson 23 August 2017 02:03:00PM 0 points [-]

I'd not thought to look at it, I assumed it was/stayed an IARPA thing and so focused on world affairs. Thanks!

It looks like it has become a for-profit endeavour now with an open component.

From the looks of it there are no ways to submit questions and you can't see the models of the world used to make the predictions, so I'm not sure if charities (or people investing in charities) can gain much value from it.

We would want questions of the form: if intervention Y occurs what is the expected magnitude of outcome Z.

I'm not sure how best to tackle this.

Comment author: rhys_lindmark 24 August 2017 03:59:18PM 0 points [-]

Great question. https://gnosis.pm and https://augur.net are building decentralized prediction markets on the Ethereum blockchain. Their goal is to "match the global liquidity pool to the global knowledge pool."

I've asked them how they're thinking about hedgehogs to form a collective fox-y model (and then segmenting the data by hedgehog type).

But yeah, I think they will allow you to do what you want above: "Questions of the form: if intervention Y occurs what is the expected magnitude of outcome Z."