ThomasSittler comments on How should we assess very uncertain and non-testable stuff? - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: ThomasSittler 17 August 2017 08:09:05PM *  3 points [-]

You may be interested in Owen's talk Prospecting for Gold. Among other things it has a mathematical formalisation of the ITN framework.

Comment author: RandomEA 17 August 2017 09:36:30PM *  5 points [-]

Here's a link to the talk for those without Facebook: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67oL0ANDh5Y (go to 21:00)

Here's a written version by 80,000 Hours: https://80000hours.org/articles/problem-framework/