MichaelPlant comments on How should we assess very uncertain and non-testable stuff? - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: MichaelPlant 17 August 2017 01:53:57PM 4 points [-]

This is sort of a meta-comment, but there's loads of important stuff here, each of which could have it's own thread. Could I suggest someone (else), organises a (small) conference to discuss some of these things?

I've got quite a few things to add on the ITN framework but nothing I can say in a few words. Relatedly, I've also been working on a method for 'cause search' - a ways of finding all the big causes in a given domain - which is the step before cause prio, but that's not something I can write out succinctly either (yet, anyway).

Comment author: Alex_Barry 18 August 2017 06:24:32PM 5 points [-]

I have organized retreat/conferency things before and would probably be up for organizing something like this if there was interest. I can contact some people and see if they think it would be worthwhile, I am not sure what I expect attendance to be like though (would 20 people be optimistic?)

Comment author: Michael_PJ 17 August 2017 05:56:12PM 2 points [-]

I have a lot of thoughts on cause search, but possibly at a more granular level. One of the big challenges when you switch from an assessing to a generating perspective is finding the right problems to work on, and it's not easy at all.

Comment author: MichaelPlant 17 August 2017 06:12:30PM 3 points [-]

Concur. If only we were meeting in the pub in, say, 1 hour to discuss this...

Comment author: DavidNash 17 August 2017 02:26:52PM 2 points [-]

I think there's one happening in London in November that is discussing questions of this nature - it may be worth seeing if they will add it to the schedule if it's not already there.

Comment author: Halstead 17 August 2017 04:07:01PM 0 points [-]

I think splitting off these questions would balkanise things too much, making it harder for people interested in this general question to get relevant information.