Peter_Hurford comments on Expected value estimates we (cautiously) took literally - Oxford Prioritisation Project - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Peter_Hurford  (EA Profile) 30 May 2017 12:12:53AM 0 points [-]

Indeed, how can you even ever know which works better?

Retrospective analysis of track record? Looking into Tetlock-style research?

Comment author: MichaelDickens  (EA Profile) 30 May 2017 02:42:42PM 0 points [-]

Suppose it's 10 years in the future, and we can look back at what ACE and MIRI have been doing for the past 10 years. We now know some new useful information, such as:

  • Has ACE produced research that influenced our understanding of effective charities?
  • Has MIRI published new research that moved us closer to making AI safe?
  • Has ACE moved more money to top animal charities?

But even then, we still don't know nearly as much as we'd like. We don't know if ACE really moved money, or if that money would have been donated to animal charities anyway. Maybe MIRI took funding away from other research avenues that would have been more fruitful. We still have no idea how (dis)valuable the far future will be.