2

PeterMcCluskey comments on A model of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute - Oxford Prioritisation Project - Effective Altruism Forum

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (4)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: PeterMcCluskey 23 May 2017 07:11:03PM 3 points [-]

colonisation of the Supercluster could have a very low probability.

What do you mean by very low probability? If you mean a one in a million chance, that's not improbable enough to answer Bostrom. If you mean something that would actually answer Bostrom, then please respond to the SlateStarCodex post Stop adding zeroes.

I think Bostrom is on the right track, and that any analysis which follows your approach should use at least a 0.1% chance of more than 10^50 human life-years.