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Jon_Behar comments on A model of 80,000 Hours - Oxford Prioritisation Project - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: Jon_Behar 26 May 2017 08:58:13PM 0 points [-]

Fair point about outliers driving the mean. Does suggest that a cost-effectiveness estimate should just try to quantify those outliers directly instead of going through a translation.
E.g. if "some of the 10s are likely to donate millions to charity within the next few years", just estimate the value of that rather than assuming that giving will on average equal 10x GWWC's estimate for the value of a pledge.

Comment author: Ben_Todd 27 May 2017 03:19:31AM 1 point [-]

Does suggest that a cost-effectiveness estimate should just try to quantify those outliers directly instead of going through a translation.

Yes, that's the main way I think about our impact. But I think you can also justify it on the basis of getting lots of people make moderate changes, so I think it's useful to consider both approaches.