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RyanCarey comments on A mental health resource for EA community - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: RyanCarey 06 May 2017 06:42:01AM *  3 points [-]

More than half of the time, people who have a psychotic episode will have already had one before. I think the same is true of mania. The incidence for a first episode of psychosis is fairly low, about 0.03% per year [1].

[1] "Over the 8-year period May 1995–April 2003, there were 194 cases of any DSM-IV psychotic illness (117 male, 77 female; Table 2). The annual incidence of “all psychoses” was 31.6/100,000 aged >15, this being higher in males (37.2) than in females (25.7; risk ratio [RR] = 1.44 [95% CI 1.08, 1.93], p < .02; Table 3)."

https://academic.oup.com/schizophreniabulletin/article/31/3/624/1894444/Epidemiology-of-First-Episode-Psychosis

Comment author: Julia_Wise 08 May 2017 02:57:38PM 2 points [-]

Yeah, incidence for someone who's never had any episodes before is unlikely. So you can assume that your own risk is very low if you know you've never experienced these things before and don't have a family history.

But if a friend seems off and you're not certain of their personal or family history, I do think it's worth considering that they might have experienced mania or psychosis before without you knowing about it.