Thanks for this!

A few comments:

RE: public policy / outreach:

“However, I now think this is a mistake.” What do you think is a mistake?

“Given this, I actually think policy outreach to the general population is probably negative in expectation.” I think this makes more sense if you see us as currently on or close to a winning path. I am more pessimistic about our current prospects for victory, so I favor a higher risk/reward. I tend to see paths to victory as involving a good chunk of the population having a decent level of understanding of AI and Xrisk.

“I think this is why a number of EA organisations seem to have seen sublinear returns to scale.” Which ones?

“There have been at least two major negative PR events, and a number of near misses.” again, I am very curious what you refer to!