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turchin comments on President Trump as a Global Catastrophic Risk - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: turchin 19 November 2016 06:33:15PM *  2 points [-]

My point of view: There were 3 possible outcomes of the election, H win, T win, no clear result. I used to think that the last is worst outcome, as it would result in civil war, end of progress etc. It still could happen if sides will increase mutual animosity. But it has very small probability.

Two other outcomes both could have positive and negative effects on x-risks. T-win negative outcomes are listed in the article, and I agree. Positive outcomes could be following: preventing nuclear war with Russian in short term and Thiel (who supports FAI) in the administration.

Negative outcome in case of H win: Higher probability of war with Russian over no-fly zone in Syria. Positive: everything else will be the same.

Disclaimer: I would vote for H if I can.

It may be also interesting to compare Trump-risk with risk of other leaders of nuclear powers, including Putin, Xi and Kim in North Korea, and even may be Le Pen (if she win) in France, Modi in India and Brexit.