MichaelDickens comments on Where I Am Donating in 2016 - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: MichaelDickens  (EA Profile) 05 November 2016 03:16:09AM *  1 point [-]

I am willing to take bets on the following proposition:

By the end of 2021, at least one restaurant regularly serves cultured animal tissue for human consumption.

I may accept alternative propositions as well.

Caveat: I have spoken to some of the people involved in clean meat work which may have given me access to information that is not available to the general public.

(Edit: Changed bet wording.)

Comment author: MichaelDickens  (EA Profile) 08 December 2016 10:04:36PM 1 point [-]

Nick Beckstead and I have agreed to bet $1000 at even odds on the proposition

By the end of 2021, at least one restaurant regularly serves cultured animal tissue for human consumption.

Comment author: MichaelDickens  (EA Profile) 16 November 2016 06:29:21PM 1 point [-]

Buck Shlegeris has agreed to bet his $2800 against my $2000 on the proposition

By the end of 2021, a restaurant regularly sells an item primarily made of a cultured animal product with a menu price less than $100.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 November 2016 01:50:03AM *  1 point [-]


Comment author: MichaelDickens  (EA Profile) 06 November 2016 04:32:56PM 0 points [-]

If we develop cost-competitive clean meat within the next 5 years, it will probably take another 5-10 years before fast food chains start serving them (and may take longer in the US because the USDA may have to approve it first, which could take a long time). So I don't think there's a high probability that fast food chains will adopt clean meat by 2021, although this has little to do with my beliefs about when it will achieve cost-competitiveness. Even if it were cost-competitive as of right now, I still wouldn't expect to see clean meat in fast food chains within 5 years.

Betting on fast food chains increases more dependencies in the bet--instead of just betting on when clean meat will be cost-competitive, we're betting on how quickly it will achieve widespread acceptance and production will scale up to a national level. I would prefer to make a simpler bet that's purely about cost-effectiveness.