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William_S comments on The Map of Global Warming Prevention - Effective Altruism Forum

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Comment author: William_S 11 August 2016 08:51:33PM *  1 point [-]

Extra risks from geoengineering:

Cause additional climate problems (ie. it doesn't just uniformly cool planet. I recall seeing a simulation somewhere where climate change + geoengineering did not equal no change, but instead significantly changed rainfall patterns).

Global coordination problems (who decides how much geoengineering to do, compensation for downside, etc.). This could cause a significant increase in international tensions, plausibly war.

Climate Wars by Gwynne Dyer has some specific negative scenarios (for climate change + geoengineering) https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats/dp/1851688145

Comment author: turchin 11 August 2016 09:07:09PM 0 points [-]

But if we stop emissions now GW will probably continue to exist for around 1000 years as I read somewhere, and even could jump because cooling effects of soot will stop.

Global coordination problems also exist, but may be not so annoying. In first case punishment comes for non-cooperation, and in second - for actions, and actions always seems to be more punishable.

Comment author: William_S 12 August 2016 12:33:53AM *  0 points [-]

I'm not saying these mean we shouldn't do geoengineering, that they can't be solved or that they will happen by default, just that these are additional risks (possibly unlikely but high impact) that you ought to include in your assessment and we ought to make sure that we avoid.

Re coordination problems not being bad: It's true that they might work out, but there's significant tail risk. Just imagine that say, the US unilaterally decides to do geonengineering, but it screws up food production and the economy in China. This probably increases chances of nuclear war (even more so than if climate change does it indirectly, as there will be a more specific, attributable event). It's worth thinking about how to prevent this scenario.

Comment author: turchin 12 August 2016 05:24:49PM 0 points [-]

Scientific studies and preparation for GE is probably the longest part of GE, and could and should be done in advance, and it should not provoke war. If real necessity of GE appear, all need technologies will be ready.

Comment author: turchin 12 August 2016 05:05:58PM 0 points [-]

Ok, I will add it as risks from geo-ingeneering