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harfe
20h
3
Consider donating all or most of your Mana on Manifold to charity before May 1. Manifold is making multiple changes to the way Manifold works. You can read their announcement here. The main reason for donating now is that Mana will be devalued from the current 1 USD:100 Mana to 1 USD:1000 Mana on May 1. Thankfully, the 10k USD/month charity cap will not be in place until then. Also this part might be relevant for people with large positions they want to sell now: > One week may not be enough time for users with larger portfolios to liquidate and donate. We want to work individually with anyone who feels like they are stuck in this situation and honor their expected returns and agree on an amount they can donate at the original 100:1 rate past the one week deadline once the relevant markets have resolved.
Animal Justice Appreciation Note Animal Justice et al. v A.G of Ontario 2024 was recently decided and struck down large portions of Ontario's ag-gag law. A blog post is here. The suit was partially funded by ACE, which presumably means that many of the people reading this deserve partial credit for donating to support it. Thanks to Animal Justice (Andrea Gonsalves, Fredrick Schumann, Kaitlyn Mitchell, Scott Tinney), co-applicants Jessica Scott-Reid and Louise Jorgensen, and everyone who supported this work!
GiveWell and Open Philanthropy just made a $1.5M grant to Malengo! Congratulations to @Johannes Haushofer and the whole team, this seems such a promising intervention from a wide variety of views
This is an extremely "EA" request from me but I feel like we need a word for people (i.e. me) who are Vegans but will eat animal products if they're about to be thrown out. OpportuVegan? UtilaVegan?
Quote from VC Josh Wolfe: > Biology. We will see an AWS moment where instead of you having to be a biotech firm that opens your own wet lab or moves into Alexandria Real Estate, which is you know, specializes in hosting biotech companies, in in all these different regions approximate to academic research centers. You will be able to just take your experiment and upload it to the cloud where there are cloud-based robotic labs. We funded some of these. There's one company called Stratios. > > There's a ton that are gonna come on wave, and this is exciting because you can be a scientist on the beach in the Bahamas, pull up your iPad, run an experiment. The robots are performing 90% of the activity of Pouring something from a beaker into another, running a centrifuge, and then the data that comes off of that. > > And this is the really cool part. Then the robot and the machines will actually say to you, “Hey, do you want to run this experiment but change these 4 parameters or these variables?” And you just click a button “yes” as though it's reverse prompting you, and then you run another experiment. So the implication here is that the boost in productivity for science, for generation of truth, of new information, of new knowledge, That to me is the most exciting thing. And the companies that capture that, forget about the societal dividend, I think are gonna make a lot of money. https://overcast.fm/+5AWO95pnw/46:15

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yanni kyriacos posted a Quick Take 8m ago

This is an extremely "EA" request from me but I feel like we need a word for people (i.e. me) who are Vegans but will eat animal products if they're about to be thrown out. OpportuVegan? UtilaVegan?

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In a recent announcement, Manifold Markets say they will change the exchange rate for your play-money (called "Mana") from 1:100 to 1:1000. Importantly, one of the ways to use this Mana is to do charity donations.

TLDR: The CTA here is to log in to your Manifold account ...

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From the discord: "Manifold can provide medium-term loans to users with larger invested balances to donate to charity now provided they agree to not exit their markets in a disorderly fashion or engage in any other financial shenanigans (interpreted very broadly). Feel free to DM for more details on your particular case."

I DM'd yesterday; yet to hear back.

Inspired by Aaron Gertler’s notes on hiring a copyeditor for CEA and more recently ERA’s hiring retrospective, I am writing a retrospective on Giving What We Can’s hiring for the Research Communicator role. This is written in my capacity as a Researcher for...

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I hadn't seen this until now. I still hope you'll do a follow up on the most recent round, since as I've said (repeatedly) elsewhere, I think you guys are the gold standard in the EA movement about how to do this well :)

One not necessarily very helpful thought:

Our work trial was overly intense and stressful, and unrepresentative of working at GWWC.

is a noble goal, but somewhat in tension with this goal:

In retrospect, we could have ensured this was done on a time-limited basis, or provided a more reasonable estimate.

It's really hard to make a strictly timed... (read more)

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4

This post is easily the weirdest thing I've ever written. I also consider it the best I've ever written - I hope you give it a chance. If you're not sold by the first section, you can safely skip the rest.

I

Imagine an alternate version of the Effective Altruism movement,...

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I essentially agree with the basic point of this post - and think it was a great post!

I have some what feel like nitpicks about the specific story that you told that and I'm sort of confused about how much they matter. My guess is that this actually is a counterargument to the point being made in the post and imply that trapped priors are less of a problem than the example used in the post would imply. 

I think that the broadly libertarian view and Scandinavian-style social democracy views are much more similar than this post gives them credit for. In ... (read more)

1
Luke Moore
11h
Loved this post! 
tlevin commented on AI Regulation is Unsafe 2h ago

Concerns over AI safety and calls for government control over the technology are highly correlated but they should not be.

There are two major forms of AI risk: misuse and misalignment. Misuse risks come from humans using AIs as tools in dangerous ways. Misalignment risks...

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1
Maxwell Tabarrok
4h
Yes that's fair. I do think that even specific advocacy can have risks though. Most advocacy is motivated by AI fear which can be picked up and used to support lots of other bad policies, e.g how Sam Altaman was received in congress.
1
Maxwell Tabarrok
4h
I do make the "by default" claim but I also give reasons why advocating for specific regulations can backfire. E.g the environmentalist success with NEPA. Environmentalists had huge success in getting the specific legal powers and constraints on govt that they asked for but those have been repurposed in service of default govt incentives. Also, advocacy for a specific set of regulations has spillovers onto others. When AI safety advocates make the case for fearing AI progress they provide support for a wide range of responses to AI including lots of nonsensical ones.

Yes, some regulations backfire, and this is a good flag to keep in mind when designing policy, but to actually make the reference-class argument here work, you'd have to show that this is what we should expect from AI policy, which would include showing that failures like NEPA are either much more relevant for the AI case or more numerous than other, more successful regulations, like (in my opinion) the Clean Air Act, Sarbanes-Oxley, bans on CFCs or leaded gasoline, etc. I know it's not quite as simple as "I would simply design good regulations instead of ... (read more)

Written by Claude, and very lightly edited.

In a recent episode of The Diary of a CEO podcast, guest Bryan Johnson, founder of Kernel and the Blueprint project, laid out a thought-provoking perspective on what he sees as the most important challenge and opportunity of our...

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Thanks, Jonas! I appreciate the support :P 

4
PeterSlattery
3h
Thanks for following up! This evidence you offer doesn't persuade me that most EAs are extremely rich guys because it's not arguing that. Did you mean to claim that most EAs who are rich guys are not donating any of their money or more than the median rich person?  I also don't feel particularly persuaded by that claim based on the evidence shared. What are the specific points that are persuasive in the links - I couldn't see anything particularly relevant from scanning them. As in nothing that I could use to make an easy comparison between EA donors and median rich people.  I see that "Mean share of total (imputed) income donated was 9.44% (imputing income where below 5k or missing) or 12.5% without imputation." for EAs and "around 2-3 percent of income" for US households" which seems opposed to your position. But I haven't checked carefully and I am not the kind of person who makes these sorts of careful comparisons very well. I don't have evidence to link to here, or time to search for it, but my current beliefs are that most of EAs funding comes from rich and extremely rich people (often men) donating their money.  
2
PeterSlattery
3h
Thanks for the input! I think of EA as a cluster of values and related actions that people can hold/practice to different extents. For instance, caring about social impact, seeking comparative advantage, thinking about long term positive impacts, and being concerned about existential risks including AI. He touched on all of those. It's true that he doesn't mention donations. I don't think that discounts his alignment in other ways. Useful to know he might not be genuine though.
Tristan commented on Killing the moths 4h ago
225
15

This post was partly inspired by, and shares some themes with, this Joe Carlsmith post. My post (unsurprisingly) expresses fewer concepts with less clarity and resonance, but is hopefully of some value regardless.

Content warning: description of animal death.

I live in a ...

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I think it's right to at least be open minded about the possibility that their lives might be generally good, all things considered.

To answer your question: insects don't have hearts because they don't have blood. Oxygen is transported to their cells by many tiny tubes (tracheae) extending from holes (spiracles) all over their thorax and abdomen.

“I really needed to hear that”

His eyes were downcast, his normally jocular expression now solemn. I had really said something that had spoken to him, that had begun to assuage some hurt which had before remained unacknowledged.

It’s not your fault. Four words.

Later, I was...

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7
Leopold Brown
6h
University of Arizona group organizer here; everything you've talked about are things that we have tried to reconcile with. But, having not yet faced a lot of those extreme changes in leadership, significant burnout, etc I believe we are struggling to fully internalize the consequences. And just because the symptoms haven't been made readily apparent, doesn't mean that the same underlying conditions aren't there in our organization. The largest thing we have tried (and to a large extent, I believe failed in) is prioritizing the organizers themselves as an end. We have always had the strong beliefs that our organizers were going to be some of the most impactful members of the club; but the allure of new members and the demands of organizing have (i believe) put our priorities in a biased order. This semester has been much better, and I really appreciate you sharing your thoughts, they will play a role in how we move forward into our next semester and potential culture/workload changes that need to be made. Ironically I have only been talking about our student club and not really myself. I am likely going to not be organizing next semester, but it is because I will be working on a riskier, more demanding, and very grandiose project for much of next semester (the irony is staggering). Your thoughts have definitely given me pause in regards to this new project, but I strongly believe it is something that I want to/should. That being said, it is really nice to hear this from another student doing organizing, and I'm no hyper-agentic organizing savant (far from it) and so I will keep your words and thoughts in the forefront as I move forward. Thank you very much, Best regards, Leopold

Hi Leopold,

Thank you for the thoughtful comment! I appreciate that my experience has informed your decision-making, but in the end it’s just my experience, so take it with a grain of salt. I also appreciate your caution; I would say that I’m also a pretty cautious person (especially for an EA; I personally think we sometimes need a little more of that).

I will say that big and risky projects aren’t necessarily a bad thing; they’re just big and risky. So if you’ve carefully considered the risks and acknowledged that you’re committing to a big project that mi... (read more)

I’m an international security professional with experience conducting open source analysis, satellite imagery interpretation, and independent research, and I’m launching a new consulting organization, Earthnote! I’m really interested in applying my skills to the EA community...

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4
Ben Millwood
13h
This seems like an impressive set of capabilities, exciting to hear about the new org :) Did CSER write more about your work for them anywhere? Interested to read more about it.

It was a fairly preliminary project and didn't result in any immediate publications, but if you DM or email me, I'd be happy to chat about some of my findings!