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harfe
6h
1
Consider donating all or most of your Mana on Manifold to charity before May 1. Manifold is making multiple changes to the way Manifold works. You can read their announcement here. The main reason for donating now is that Mana will be devalued from the current 1 USD:100 Mana to 1 USD:1000 Mana on May 1. Thankfully, the 10k USD/month charity cap will not be in place until then.
Animal Justice Appreciation Note Animal Justice et al. v A.G of Ontario 2024 was recently decided and struck down large portions of Ontario's ag-gag law. A blog post is here. The suit was partially funded by ACE, which presumably means that many of the people reading this deserve partial credit for donating to support it. Thanks to Animal Justice (Andrea Gonsalves, Fredrick Schumann, Kaitlyn Mitchell, Scott Tinney), co-applicants Jessica Scott-Reid and Louise Jorgensen, and everyone who supported this work!
GiveWell and Open Philanthropy just made a $1.5M grant to Malengo! Congratulations to @Johannes Haushofer and the whole team, this seems such a promising intervention from a wide variety of views
Quote from VC Josh Wolfe: > Biology. We will see an AWS moment where instead of you having to be a biotech firm that opens your own wet lab or moves into Alexandria Real Estate, which is you know, specializes in hosting biotech companies, in in all these different regions approximate to academic research centers. You will be able to just take your experiment and upload it to the cloud where there are cloud-based robotic labs. We funded some of these. There's one company called Stratios. > > There's a ton that are gonna come on wave, and this is exciting because you can be a scientist on the beach in the Bahamas, pull up your iPad, run an experiment. The robots are performing 90% of the activity of Pouring something from a beaker into another, running a centrifuge, and then the data that comes off of that. > > And this is the really cool part. Then the robot and the machines will actually say to you, “Hey, do you want to run this experiment but change these 4 parameters or these variables?” And you just click a button “yes” as though it's reverse prompting you, and then you run another experiment. So the implication here is that the boost in productivity for science, for generation of truth, of new information, of new knowledge, That to me is the most exciting thing. And the companies that capture that, forget about the societal dividend, I think are gonna make a lot of money. https://overcast.fm/+5AWO95pnw/46:15
1
Otto
1h
0
High impact startup idea: make a decent carbon emissions model for flights. Current ones simply use flight emissions which makes direct flights look low-emission. But in reality, some of these flights wouldn't even be there if people could be spread over existing indirect flights more efficiently, which is why they're cheaper too. Emission models should be relative to counterfactual. The startup can be for-profit. If you're lucky, better models already exist in scientific literature. Ideal for the AI for good-crowd. My guess is that a few man-years work could have a big carbon emissions impact here.

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Crosspost of my blog.  

You shouldn’t eat animals in normal circumstances. That much is, in my view, quite thoroughly obvious. Animals undergo cruel, hellish conditions that we’d confidently describe as torture if they were inflicted on a human (or even a dog). No hamburger...

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So far as it goes, your argument seems correct. But you're leaving out a significant factor here--carbon emissions. Beef cattle are extraordinarily carbon intensive even compared to other animals raised for food. If you eat them, your emissions, combined with other people's emissions, are going to cause a huge amount of both human and non-human suffering.

There's a complication. You could, in principle, offset the damage from your carbon emissions. But you could also, in principle, eat animals who have been raised free range, and whose lives have probably b... (read more)

harfe posted a Quick Take 6h ago
harfe
6h24
1
0
3

Consider donating all or most of your Mana on Manifold to charity before May 1.

Manifold is making multiple changes to the way Manifold works. You can read their announcement here. The main reason for donating now is that Mana will be devalued from the current 1 USD:100 Mana to 1 USD:1000 Mana on May 1. Thankfully, the 10k USD/month charity cap will not be in place until then.

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This is an anonymous account (Ávila is not a real person). I am posting on this account to avoid potentially negative effects on my future job prospects.

SUMMARY:

  • I've been rejected from 18 jobs or internships, 12 of which are "in EA."
  • I briefly spell out my background information
...
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This is something that BERI has actually been discussing! If anyone is interested in talking to us more about this (either from a hiring/evaluation perspective or from a candidate perspective, you can send an email to contact@existence.org and I'll follow up. 

1
Minh Nguyen
1h
Paul Graham had a nice take on this: I think "actually really want to apply" is not enough of a correlation to base decisions on. The fact is that even qualified+motivated applicants would need to apply to a dozen+ places, and often EA application questions require a lot of thought anyway. To give an example, lots of EAs are from top unis, and I'm pretty sure the meta-strategy for applying to selective unis is to not fall in love with any particular one and shotgun a lot of applications. This reduces the role of personal fit. One thing I always thought was interesting would be to have an actual application limit like UK colleges do. I applied to 20 colleges, and I would've been fine applying to 5 with improved odds.
1
ZacharyRudolph
6h
Hey, Zack from XLab here. I'd be happy to provide a couple sentence feedback on your application if you send me an email.  The most common reasons for rejection before an interview were things like no indication of having US citizenship or student visa, ChatGPT-seeming responses, responses to the exercise that didn't clearly and compellingly indicate how it was relevant for global catastrophic risk mitigation, or lack of clarity on how mission aligned the applicant was. We appreciate the feedback, though.      
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Anders Sandberg has written a “final report” released simultaneously with the announcement of FHI’s closure. The abstract and an excerpt follow.


Normally manifestos are written first, and then hopefully stimulate actors to implement their vision. This document is the reverse

...
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4
Sean_o_h
1h
It wasn't carefully chosen. It was the term used by the commenter I was replying to. I was a little frustrated, because it was another example of a truth-seeking enquiry by Milena getting pushed down the track of only-considering-answers-in-which-all-the-agency/wrongness-is-on-the-university side (including some pretty unpleasant options relating to people I'd worked with ('parasitic egregore/siphon money'). >Did Oxford think it was a reputation risk? Were the other philosophers jealous of the attention and funding FHI got? Was a beaurocratic parasitic egregore putting up roadblocks to siphon off money to itself? Garden variety incompetence? So I just did copy and paste on the most relevant phrase, but flipped it. Bit blunter and more attention-getting than I would normally be (as you've presumably seen from my writing, I normally caveat to a probably-tedious degree), but I was finding it hard to challenge the simplistic fhi-good-uni-bad narrative. It was one line, I didn't think much about it.

One other observation that might explain some of the different perceptions on 'blame' here.

I don't think Oxford's bureaucracy/administration is good, and I think it did behave very badly at points*. But overall, I don't think Oxford's bureaucracy/behaviour was a long way outside what you would expect for the reference class of thousand-year-old-institutions with >10,000 employees. And Nick knew that was what it was, chose to be situated there, and did benefit (particularly in the early days) from the reputation boost. I think there is some reasonable ex... (read more)

1
Deborah W.A. Foulkes
5h
Not to be confused with The Macrostrategy Partnership: https://www.macrostrategy.co.uk/
Otto posted a Quick Take 1h ago

High impact startup idea: make a decent carbon emissions model for flights.

Current ones simply use flight emissions which makes direct flights look low-emission. But in reality, some of these flights wouldn't even be there if people could be spread over existing indirect flights more efficiently, which is why they're cheaper too. Emission models should be relative to counterfactual.

The startup can be for-profit. If you're lucky, better models already exist in scientific literature. Ideal for the AI for good-crowd.

My guess is that a few man-years work could have a big carbon emissions impact here.

Continue reading

Disclaimer: While I criticize several EA critics in this article, I am myself on the EA-skeptical side of things (especially on AI risk).

Introduction

I am a proud critic of effective altruism, and in particular a critic of AI existential risk, but I have to admit that a ...

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I must admit I did not have time to re-read your post carefully, but thought it worth pointing out that after reading it I am left a bit confused by the multiple "culture wars" references. Could you please expand on this a bit?

I guess my confusion is that "culture wars" seem to be "attention grabbing" words you used in the beginning of your post, but I feel that after reading the full post that they were not fully addressed. I would be keen to understand if you only meant these to be rhetorical devices to make the reading more captivating, or if you have o... (read more)

31
Larks
6h
I think the idea of a motivational shadow is a good one, and it can be useful to think about these sorts of filters on what sorts of evidence/argument/research people are willing to share, especially if people are afraid of social sanction. However, I am less convinced by this concrete application. You present a hierarchy of activities in order of effort required to unlock, and suggest that something like 'being paid full time to advocate for this' pushes people up multiple levels: I don't believe that the people who are currently doing high quality Xrisk advocacy would counter-factually be writing nasty newspaper hit pieces; these just seem like totally different activities, or that Timnit would write more rigourously if people gave her more money. My impression is that high quality work on both sides is done by people with strong inherent dedication to truth-seeking and intellectual inquiry, and there is no need to first pass through a valley of vitriol before your achieve a motivational level-up to an ascended state of evidence. Indeed, historically a lot of Xrisk advocacy work was done by people for whom such an activity had negative financial and social payoff. I also think you miss a major, often dominant motivation: people love to criticize, especially to criticize things that seem to threaten their moral superiority. 
10
Linch
8h
I genuinely don't know if this is an interesting/relevant question that's unique to EA. To me, the obvious follow-up question here is whether EA is unique or special in having this (average) level of vitriol in critiques of us? Like is the answer to "why so much EA criticism is hostile and lazy" the same answer to "why is so much criticism, period, hostile and lazy?" Or are there specific factors of EA that's at all relevant here? I haven't been sufficiently embedded in other intellectual or social movements. I was a bit involved in global development before and don't recall much serious vitirol, maybe something like Easterly or Moyo are closest. I guess maybe MAGA implicitly doesn't like global dev?  But otoh I've heard of other people involved in say animal rights who say that the "critiques" of EA are all really light and milquetoast by comparison. I'd really appreciate answers from people who have been more "around the block" than I have. 
yanni kyriacos posted a Quick Take 7h ago

I think it would be good if lots of EAs answered this twitter poll, so we could get a better sense for the communities views on the topic of Enlightenment / Awakening: https://twitter.com/SpencrGreenberg/status/1782525718586413085?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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How much weight should we give the long-term future, given that nobody may be around to experience it? Both economists and philosophers see extinction risk as a rationale for discounting future costs and benefits. David Thorstad has recently claimed it poses a major challenge...

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I've raised related points here, and also here with followup, about how exponential decay with a fixed decay rate is not a good model to use for estimating long-term survival probability.

Cullen posted a Quick Take 10h ago

Quote from VC Josh Wolfe:

Biology. We will see an AWS moment where instead of you having to be a biotech firm that opens your own wet lab or moves into Alexandria Real Estate, which is you know, specializes in hosting biotech companies, in in all these different regions approximate to academic research centers. You will be able to just take your experiment and upload it to the cloud where there are cloud-based robotic labs. We funded some of these. There's one company called Stratios.

There's a ton that are gonna come on wave, and this is exciting because you can be a scientist on the beach in the Bahamas, pull up your iPad, run an experiment. The robots are performing 90% of the activity of Pouring something from a beaker into another, running a centrifuge, and then the data that comes off of that.

And this is the really cool part. Then the robot and the machines will actually say to you, “Hey, do you want to run this experiment but change these 4 parameters or these variables?” And you just click a button “yes” as though it's reverse prompting you, and then you run another experiment. So the implication here is that the boost in productivity for science, for generation of truth, of new information, of new knowledge, That to me is the most exciting thing. And the companies that capture that, forget about the societal dividend, I think are gonna make a lot of money.

https://overcast.fm/+5AWO95pnw/46:15

Continue reading