The expected value of the long-term future

I wrote an article describing a simple model of the long-term future. Here it is: in PDF format in tex format Summary: A number of ambitious arguments have recently been proposed about the moral importance of the long-term future of humanity, on the scale of millions and billions of years.... Read More

Viewing Effective Altruism as a System

Meta-EA is most often characterised in terms of discrete units such as dollars and individuals. How many people can we recruit, how much will they donate, how many people can we train to be AI researchers? This approach carries a lot of value, particularly when we wish to craft metrics... Read More

80,000 Hours annual review released

Hi everyone, The full review is here . Below is the summary:  ---- This year, we focused on “upgrading” – getting engaged readers into our top priority career paths. We do this by writing articles on why and how to enter the  priority paths , providing one-on-one advice to help... Read More

Donation Plans for 2017

Each year Julia and I need to decide where we're giving. Here's what we've been thinking about this year: We want to continue dividing our donations 50-50 between things that directly do good and more speculative options. This is the approach we've been following since ~2012, and I think I... Read More

Updates from the Open Philanthropy Blog

The Open Philanthropy Project has published two blog posts in the last days: Our ‘Second Chance’ Program for NIH Transformative Research Applicants Staff Members' Personal Donations for Giving Season 2017 Crossposted by the forum admins.

“Just take the expected value” – a possible reply to concerns about cluelessness

This is the second in a series of posts exploring consequentialist cluelessness and its implications for effective altruism: The first post describes cluelessness & its relevance to EA; arguing that for many popular EA interventions we don’t have a clue about the intervention’s overall net impact. This post considers a... Read More

2018 AI Safety Literature Review and Charity Comparison

  Summary: I review a significant amount of 2017 research related to AI Safety and offer some comments about where I am going to donate this year.   Contents Contents Introduction The Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) The Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) Global Catastrophic Risks Institute (GCRI) The Center... Read More

CFAR's end-of-year Impact Report and Fundraiser

End-of-year updates for those interested: CFAR made a larger effort to track our programs' impact on existential risk over the last year; you can find a partial account of our findings on our blog.  (Also, while some of the details of our tracking aren't currently published due to privacy concerns, let me know if... Read More

Updates Thread: How Have You Changed Your Mind This Year?

I recently went through the exercise on my blog of thinking through ways my mind has changed this year and wanted to start a thread for people to share significant updates they’ve made in the past year. A lot of EA organizations do this, but there's less of a space... Read More

Updates from the GiveWell Blog

GiveWell's blog has been very active recently. Here are the latest articles, crossposted by the forum admins. Update on our work on outreach Maximizing the impact of your donation: saving on fees means more money for great charities December 2017 open thread Give efficiently and reduce the work for charities... Read More

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